LEAGUE TWO, SATURDAY, 22nd FEBRUARY 2025.

It’s All About Percentages, apparently…

The run-away leaders of League Two visited Morecambe’s mud heap of a pitch this afternoon in the reverse fixture of the first game of the season. The Shrimps set an unwanted precedent in this fixture, losing it by the only goal of the contest for the first of twelve matches altogether so far. You could Copy & Paste Manager Derek Adams’ reaction to the loss onto almost all of the games his men have played subsequently:

“We’re obviously disappointed to come away with nothing today. We’ve had all the possession in the match, which means nothing because we haven’t had any shots on goal in the whole match. That’s hugely disappointing because Walsall were there to be got at. We weren’t able to break them down.”

Today’s was the third home game in a row for Morecambe. They deservedly beat Accrington Stanley 2-0 last Saturday but suffered the same old failings again on Tuesday against Doncaster: shot-shy despite several good chances. They lost this game against ten men by the depressingly familiar score: one-nil.

King Derek has gone on record to say his team needs to accumulate fifty points this season to escape from the relegation positions it currently occupies. So let’s so a bit of basic maths:

Morecambe have fourteen league games still to play which equates to 42 points. They already have 26. So – socks off – they need another 24, don’t they? That’s 57.14% of the points available if that helps. Does it? Not really… Anyway – they need another 24 points to survive according to their Manager.

So what were their chances of picking-up any of these against a club which has thirteen points more than Derek’s final target in the bank already? In previous encounters in various competitions, the Shrimps have beaten Walsall four times and lost three games. Furthermore, although I described the Saddlers as `run-away leaders of League Two’ in the first sentence above, their recent results are relegation, not promotion form. They have lost four of their last six league games and won only one – last Saturday where they went behind again to Chesterfield at home but finally overcame them by three goals to one. In reality, Walsall led the division by eight points before the game started. A month ago, this lead was half as much again: twelve points.

This is what their Chief Coach, Mat Sadler, said before the match started about his plan to at least maintain Walsall’s current advantage over the chasing pack as far as Morecambe are concerned:

“It’s always going to be a tough game because of how good their Manager is. He’s an experienced Manager; knows exactly how he wants his team to play and without doubt kind of demands that from his team. So we know it’s going to be a tough one. But it’s all about us; from our perspective and what we do. We go there knowing (it will be) a difficult game and one we want to try and play our stuff and put our right foot forward on the game. Difficult one – as they all are – but one to look forward to.”

This is what Derek said prior to the game about the challenge of playing Walsall:

“Our goal is to try and win the football match. They are very direct. They play in a way that they don’t have a lot of possession. They knock the ball long into Jamille Matt and then have other strikers round about him. They play with wing-backs and have two central midfield players supporting. They are a team that will not try and play a lot – they are a team that puts the ball forward very quickly.”

In terms of injury, Mr Adams confirmed that Max Taylor has been ill but has recovered and that newly-signed goalkeeper Ryan Schofield will miss the next three or four weeks with the injury which forced him to leave the field last Tuesday evening. Callum Jones and Stuart Moore are also out of the reckoning with knocks of one sort or another and George Ray and Ross Millen are still struggling to regain full fitness.

The match kicked-off early to end any hopes of shop or some shift workers getting there on time from either fanbase. But who cares about them when there is money to be made by satellite broadcasters by televising it?

The weather was dry and actually sunny throughout the match but earlier rain didn’t help with the poor surface that both teams were forced to play on. In truth, it looked better in natural light than the brown pudding it seemed to be last Tuesday night under the floodlights.

Derek was absolutely right when he said that the visitors like to get the ball forward quickly, with their left full-back Liam Gordon outstanding all the time he was on the field, constantly attacking like an old-fashioned winger and causing havoc in the home rearguard. Walsall Captain Jamille Matt led the line but he wasn’t the focal point of Walsall’s forward moves all the time by any means. Having said that, the visitors did not have things all their own way during the first period – and far from it. After ten Minutes, Andy Dallas headed Luke Hendrie’s cross from the right over the bar when he had to whole goal to aim at. Lee Angol had an arguably even better chance after 34 minutes when he took two touches when well placed and – losing his balance – turned the ball over the bar when a first time effort might have been more productive. He had another chance from a corner a couple of minutes later but the ball again ended-up sailing over the bar. The forever industrious Marcus Dackers then had a decent shot at goal with just a few minutes left but visiting goalkeeper Tommy Simpkin caught it without too much trouble just up to his right. So it was a familiar story at half-time: with more confident finishing, the Shrimps could have been ahead against a team who looked, if anything, slightly inferior to them.

But it all went wrong in the second half. The pivotal moment of the game arrived in the fiftieth minute. There was still nothing to choose between the sides when Rhys Williams had a rush of blood to the head, allowed Jamie Jellis to get on the wrong side of him and then pulled him back. It was a clear goal-scoring opportunity and our Premiership defender left Referee James Durkin – who I thought did a pretty good job today – with no option than to show him a straight red card. And that was it: in one moment of poor judgement, any hopes that Morecambe might actually win this game were thrown away. Things immediately got worse as from the resulting free-kick, Jellis himself scored as his tremendous shot went over the wall, hit Harry Burgoyne’s left-hand post and nestled in the net.

Morecambe at times played better with ten men than they had with eleven and put the visitors under sustained pressure for a period of the game.  With sixty-seven minutes on the clock, Angol again had a chance but was too slow to react once more and saw his effort blocked by the away defence. In the seventy-fifth minute. Substitute Adam Lewis then put one of his perfect crosses from the left right onto the head of Dackers but our errant number Nineteen headed it over instead of under the bar. Three minutes later, Gordon made space for himself again on the Saddlers’ left and unleashed a shot which Harry did really well to parry. Then, with less than ten minutes scheduled to play, Walsall substitute Levi Amantchi headed narrowly wide following a cross from fellow replacement Albert Adomah. But the tie was finally settled in the eighty-seventh minute when Jellis showed everyone how it is done for the second time with another tremendous shot. Having been found by Ryan Stirk, he set himself up in the middle of the goal, picked his spot and fairly put his laces through the ball to score with a powerful, controlled strike.

So Morecambe’s plight at the bottom of the table became even more dire this afternoon. They now have unlucky thirteen league fixtures to play. They still need 24 points out of these according to the Boss. That’s 61.5% – as opposed to 57.15% prior to kick-off, which shows a sharp linear increase equal to the angle of the hypotenuse minus the number you first thought of. In the opportunity offered to them to escape from the Legion of the Damned at the bottom of the EFL – three home games in a row – they have achieved a win ratio of just 33%. That’s about half what they actually need if simple statistics are any guide to anything. But I saw some metrics this week that said that Accrington, Bromley and someone else are worse teams than both Morecambe and Carlisle at the very bottom of the pile. So why are the Cumbrians in 24^th place in the league and us just above them? The answer is that there are – to quote the old adage – Lies; Damned Lies… and Statistics.

In the figures that actually matter, Carlisle again failed to score at home and ended-up with a single point against Gillingham later in the day. Tranmere did even worse, losing in Nottingham, 2-1. Elsewhere, Accrington were defeated at home 1-2 by Donny and Harrogate were walloped in Yorkshire 0-3 by Cheltenham. So not a lot has changed in the dead zone of the EFL today. As long as other teams in and around us keep on losing, Derek’s prediction that Morecambe need fifty points to be safe could well prove to be mistaken. All of us must hope that – because we are not getting hammered week-in week-out and give even the supposedly `better’ sides in the division a run for their money – all hope is not lost. Derek Adams must be silently seething that Rhys Williams got himself sent off today. But this is what he said after the latest defeat:

“We had better opportunities than Walsall today. We should have scored. Andrew Dallas should score in the first half; Angol has two very good opportunities in the first half – Dackers as well. Then Lee Angol in the second half. We should have been ahead in the game. Walsall didn’t really have many opportunities. Then it turns on a sending-off.”

Morecambe:   1 Harry Burgoyne; 2 Luke Hendrie (I must apologise for referring to Luke as `Lee’ far too often in my match reports – thanks for Kelly for pointing this out to me today) (20 Callum Cook 67’); 5 Max Taylor; 8 Harvey Macadam; 10 Lee Angol (33 Ged Garner 67’); 17 Paul Lewis (7 Gwion Edwards  85’);14 Rhys Williams (R); 16 Andy Dallas (6 Jamie Stott 50’); 19 Marcus Dackers; 23 David Tutonda (3 Adam Lewis 68’); 24 Yann Songo’o (C).

Subs not used:   4 Tom White; Ben Tollitt.

Walsall: 1Tommy Simkin; 2 Connor Barrett (19 Nayhan Asiimwe 93’); 3 Liam Gordon (30 Evan Weir 93’); 4 Oisin McEntee; 9 Jamille Matt (C) (37 Albert Adomah 71’); 14 Brandon Comley; 21 Taylor Allen; 22 Jamie Jellis; 23 Ellis Harrison (11 Levi Amantchi  71’); 25 Ryan Stirk; 26 David Okagbue.

Subs not used: 12 Sam Hornby; 24 Harry Williams; 39 Danny Johnson.

Ref: James Durkin.

Att: 3,457 (just over 850 from Walsall.)